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Thursday, March 17, 2011

Market Analysis - 17th March 2011

 
SENSEX -  18,149.87       -208.82 (-1.14%)
NIFTY    -  5,446.65          -64.50 (-1.17%)

The key benchmark indices cut losses in late trade after sliding to intraday low. The BSE 30-share Sensex was provisionally down 192.55 points or 1.05% to 18,166.14, up 62.12 points from the day's low and off 188.13 points from the day's high. Fears of further monetary tightening by the central bank to tame high inflation and firm global crude oil prices weighted on stocks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised key interest rates at a mid-quarter policy review today, 17 March 2011 and the central bank said it will continue with its anti-inflationary stance. 

BSE SENSEX



NSE NIFTY




The central bank also warned that continuing uncertainty about energy and commodity prices may vitiate the investment climate, posing a threat to the current economic growth trajectory. Global cues were mixed with US index futures and European markets trading firm while Asian markets declined. 

Eleven out of the 13-sectoral indices on BSE logged declines. The market breadth was negative. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) lost over 1% in volatile trade. Another index heavyweight Infosys Technologies slipped close to 2%. Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani (ADA) group rose on renewed buying. Metal stocks fell on concerns domestic demand may slow. Interest rate sensitive banking stocks fell after the Reserve Bank of India's rate hike. Telecom pivotals saw divergent trend. 

The key benchmark indices cut initial losses as higher advance tax payment by top Indian for Q4 March 2011 hinted good Q4 March 2011 earnings. Cooling crude oil prices also aided intraday recovery from an initial slide caused by weakness in Asian markets triggered by worsening nuclear crisis in Japan. The market lost ground again as oil prices bounced back. Volatility ruled the roost as the key benchmark indices cut losses in mid-morning trade on intraday recovery as Asian markets triggered by hopes Japan's nuclear crisis is easing.
Volatility continued as key benchmark indices weakened in early afternoon trade as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it will continue with its anti-inflationary stance and raised key short term rates by 25 basis points each at a mid-quarter policy review announce at 12:00 IST today, 17 March 2011. Weakness continued in afternoon trade. The market extended losses in mid-afternoon trade as crude oil prices rose. The market recovered in late trade after touching a fresh intraday low. 

As per provisional closing, the BSE 30-share Sensex was down 192.55 points or 1.05% to 18,166.14. The index lost 254.67 points at the day's low of 18,104.02 in late trade. The Sensex fell 4.42 points at the day's high of 18,354.27 in mid-morning trade. 

The S&P CNX Nifty was down 56.60 points or 1.03% to 5,454.55 after gyrating between 5,510.05 and 5,435.30 so far during the day. 

 India's largest carmaker by sales Maruti Suzuki India lost 4.31% to Rs 1170.90 on concerns the nuclear crisis in Japan that followed a powerful earthquake and tsunami last week may hurt Maruti's imports from Japan. It was the top loser from the Sensex pack. Maruti Suzuki has substantial imports of raw materials from its Japanese parent Suzuki Motor. Reports indicated the company had not hedged its yen exposure after 28 February 2011 as the management had expected the yen to depreciate against the US dollar. 

The Japanese yen has surged after the quake on expectations that Japanese investors will have to repatriate cash to cover the costs of the disaster. The yen today, 17 March 2011, hit a record high against the dollar. The yen has also surged against the Indian rupee after the quake, which will make imports costlier for Maruti. Maruti Suzuki imports engines and gears from Japan. It also pays royalty on sales to parent Suzuki. There are also concerns about disruption in imports of the key input from Japan after the quake. 
 

While the year-on-year non-food credit growth at 23% till February 2011 remains above the RBI's indicative projection of 20% for the year ending March 2011, the pace of credit expansion has moderated since December 2010, the RBI said in its mid-quarter policy review today. Monetary transmission is increasingly visible as banks continue to raise their lending rates, it added. 

Metal stocks fell on concerns domestic demand may slow. Hindalco Industries (down 2.22%), Sesa Goa (down 1.48%), Tata Steel (down 0.51%), Jindal Steel & Power (down 1.37%), Nalco (down 3.39%), Hindustan Zinc (down 1.72%), and JSW Steel (down 1.57%), declined. 

India's second largest listed cellular services provider by sales Reliance Communications (RCom) jumped 3.25% to Rs 106.30, extending three-day gains, after it got the company said it has draw down first tranche of Rs 3000 crore from China Development Bank underwritten facility of Rs 8700 crore. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack. 

 The RBI today hiked the repo rate or the short term lending rate to 6.75% from 6.50% while the reverse repo rate or the short term borrowing rate was raised to 5.75% from 5.50% to tame high inflation. The RBI left the cash reserve ratio (CRR) and the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) unchanged at 6% and 24%, respectively. It further said that the central bank would continue with its policy to contain rate of price rise. The hike in key policy rates is likely to make loans, including housing, auto and corporate loans, dearer. 

The RBI lifted the wholesale price index-based inflation forecast to around 8% for end March 2011 from 7% earlier. Further upside risks to inflation have stemmed from high international crude prices, their impact on freely priced petroleum products, the increase in administered coal prices and pick-up in non-food manufactured product prices, the central bank said. 

With regard to domestic economic growth outlook the RBI said continuing uncertainty about energy and commodity prices may vitiate the investment climate, posing a threat to the current growth trajectory. In particular, the weak performance of capital goods in the index of industrial production suggests that investment momentum may be slowing down. 

India featured among the 'least favoured' investment destinations, according to a foreign fund manager's survey. Fund managers have reduced their allocations towards emerging markets, including India, for the fourth successive month to reach the lowest level in two years, the survey said. 

US crude futures were up $1.24 a barrel or 1.27% to $99.22 a barrel on hopes Japan's nuclear crisis is easing. Meanwhile in the Middle East and North Africa, fighting is continuing to intensify in Libya. The International Committee of the Red Cross reportedly withdrew from the rebel stronghold of Benghazi on Wednesday, saying it feared an imminent attack by the forces of Col. Moammar Gadhafi. India imports majority of its crude oil requirements. 

Advance tax payments made by top 100 firms based in the country's financial capital --Mumbai reportedly rose by 25% in the Q4 March 2011 over Q4 March 2010, hinting robust earnings. Companies pay advance tax every quarter based on their projected income for the year. Higher advance tax collections reflect more income for firms indicating that companies' sales are growing to meet rising demand. 

European markets recovered from the prior day's losses, led by gains in auto and mining stocks. The key benchmark indices in the UK, Gearmany and France were up by between 0.92% to 1.09%. 

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde has called for a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven (G7) advanced nations to discuss their response to the Japanese crisis. 

Asian markets fell in choppy trade as Japan struggled to avert a nuclear catastrophe on Thursday, spraying water from both the air and ground on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in an effort to head off a large-scale radiation leak. The Nikkei 225 average lost 1.44%. The key benchmark indices in China, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Taiwan were down by between 0.50% to 1.83%. South Korea's Seoul Composite rose 0.05%. 

Japan's biggest utility Tokyo Electric Power said it hopes to restore power to the quake-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant within a few hours. 

Meanwhile, global ratings agency Standard & Poor's said on Wednesday Asian economies will continue to grow strongly this year even as Japan struggles with the aftermath of a devastating earthquake and tsunami.
Wall Street suffered severe cut on Wednesday after the European Union's energy chief reportedly said that the situation at a nuclear plant in Japan could get worse. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 242.12 points, or 2.04%, to 11,613.30. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 24.99 points, or 1.95%, to 1,256.88 and the Nasdaq declined 50.51 points, or 1.89%, to 2,616.82. 


Back home, the Union Cabinet on Tuesday, 15 March 2011, approved a bill to usher in a national goods and services tax (GST), the final step in the country's most ambitious tax reform before introducing it in parliament. The GST will cut business costs and boost government tax revenue, but will likely miss its April 2012 deadline for implementation due to resistance from several states and the Bharatiya Janata Party.

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